Peru — Military Capability Assessment

The 30.36/100 rests first on Combat experience (75.00), Command & control (65.00), Force mass (56.09). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.

• Alliance architecture adds a +5.78 bonus.
• Nuclear deterrence contributes a capped +0.56 bonus — it cannot manufacture top-tier conventional standing on its own.
• Force mass is capped by what equipment, training and sustainment can actually support — headcount alone scores nothing.

7 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift, Overseas basing…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.

The six sub-scores

All 24 causal dimensions

Assessment coverage: 73.9% — 17 of 24 dimensions observed. Military assessment, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, nuclear taxonomy.

Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).

Recent acquisitions & orders (dated, sourced)

• Gripen E/F fighters — selection (replaces Mirage 2000) — 24 planned (SELECTED but never contracted — Peru chose Gripen E/F over F-16 Block 70 and Rafale F4 (announced ~Jul 2025); program stalled after President Boluarte's impeachment (Oct 2025))
  Aviation News EU, 11 Jul 2025; Army Recognition, Jul 2025 source
• F-16 Block 70 fighters (replacing Mirage 2000/MiG-29) — 12 firm (+ 12 option) (Technical agreement/contract signed 20 Apr 2026; confirmed by Lockheed Martin 23 Apr 2026; politically contested (ministers resigned))
  {'date': 'April-May 2026 (contract 20 Apr 2026)', 'publication': 'Defence Blog; Lockheed Martin', 'url': 'https://defence-blog.com/lockheed-martin-wins-peru-f-16-deal-amid-full-blown-political-crisis/'}

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Kernel assessment: Land warfare 50.82/100 (observed).

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Kernel assessment: Naval power 29.40/100 (observed).

Recent acquisitions & orders (dated, sourced)

• HD HHI naval co-production: 1 frigate + 1 offshore patrol vessel + 2 landing craft units (SIMA shipyard, Callao) — 4 (Contract signed 16 Apr 2024; local build at SIMA; deliveries by 2029)
  {'date': '16 April 2024', 'publication': 'Naval News', 'url': 'https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/hd-hhi-signs-contract-for-local-construction-of-four-naval-vessels-for-the-peruvian-navy/'}

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Status: non-nuclear-weapon state

Armed Forces of Peru (Fuerzas Armadas del Perú or FAP): Peruvian Army (Ejercito del Peru), Peruvian Navy (Marina de Guerra del Peru, MGP, includes naval infantry and General Directorate of Captaincies and Coast Guards, DICAPI), Air Force of Peru (Fuerza Aerea del Peru, FAP) Ministry of the Interior: Peruvian National Police (Policía Nacional del Perú, PNP) (2025)

information varies; approximately 85,000 active-duty Armed Forces (50,000 Army; 25,000 Navy; 10,000 Air Force); approximately 75,000 National Police (2025)

the military's inventory consists of mostly older or secondhand armaments originating from a range of countries, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Russia/former Soviet Union, South Korea, Spain, and the US; Peru has a small defense industry, including a shipyard that builds and upgrades naval vessels; it also has defense industrial cooperation agreements with several countries, including Russia, South Korea, Spain, and the US (2025)

18-30 years of age for voluntary military service (12-24 months) (2025)

225 Central African Republic (MINUSCA) (2025)

the Peruvian Armed Forces (FAP) are responsible for external defense in addition to some domestic security responsibilities in designated emergency areas and in exceptional circumstances; key areas of focus include counterinsurgency, counternarcotics, cyber defense, disaster relief, and maritime security operations; the FAP supported the police during anti-government protests in early 2023; it has contributed to UN missions since 1958 and has ties to regional militaries, particularly Colombia, as well as those of numerous other countries such as China, Russia, Spain, and the US; the FAP’s last external conflict was a brief border war with Ecuador in 1995 the Special Command of the Valley of the Apurimac, Ene, and Mantaro rivers (CE-VRAEM) is responsible for combating the remnants of the Shining Path terrorist group (aka Sendero Luminoso) and includes several thousand air, ground, naval, police, and special forces personnel; the FAP also provides aircraft, vehicles, and logistical support to the command (2025)