Guinea-Bissau — Military Capability Assessment
Force structure, readiness, power projection, and deterrence: the Bureau’s strategic assessment of Guinea-Bissau’s military capability — scored 0–100 across 24 causal dimensions.
Last updated: October 2026
Stronger than 68% of the 195 ranked countries.
Nearest neighbors
| Rank | Country | Score |
|---|---|---|
| #61 | Nicaragua | 39.3/100 |
| #62 | Papua New Guinea | 39.2/100 |
| #63 | Guinea-Bissau (you) | 39.1/100 |
| #64 | Turkmenistan | 38.7/100 |
| #65 | Equatorial Guinea | 38.6/100 |
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Why this score — the assessment, decomposed
The 39.06/100 rests first on Mobilization (70.00), Readiness & training (70.00), Logistics (70.00). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.
- Alliance architecture adds a +5.78 bonus.
- Nuclear deterrence contributes a capped +0.76 bonus — it cannot manufacture top-tier conventional standing on its own.
- Extreme defense burden applies an economic-strain penalty of −2.00.
10 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Equipment quality, ISR & intelligence, Missile forces, Air defense, Cyber & space, Strategic lift…); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.
The six sub-scores
All 24 causal dimensions
Assessment coverage: 60.9% — 14 of 24 dimensions observed. Military assessment, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, nuclear taxonomy.
Air power
Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Land power
Kernel assessment: Land warfare 64.00/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Sea power
Kernel assessment: Naval power 22.80/100 (observed).
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Missiles & air defense
Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.
Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.
Nuclear
Status: Non-nuclear-weapon state; party to the NPT
Force structure — record
People's Revolutionary Armed Force (Forcas Armadas Revolucionarias do Povo or FARP): Army, Navy, Air Force Ministry of Internal Administration: National Guard (a gendarmerie force), Public Order Police, Border Police, Rapid Intervention Police, Maritime Police (2025)
estimated 4,000 active FARP (2025)
the FARP is outfitted mostly with Soviet-era weapons and equipment (2025)
18-25 years of age for selective compulsory military service for men and women (Air Force service is voluntary) (2025)
the Armed Forces (FARP) are focused on external security, but also has some internal security duties; the FARP and the paramilitary National Guard have been influential in the country’s politics since independence and have attempted several coups; since the 2000s, the FARP has undergone various attempts at defense and security sector reforms under the auspices of the African Union, the EU, the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS), and the UN (2025)
MILITARY POWER 39.06/100 — The Magna Military Power score is our 0–100 measure of causal military capability — 24 dimensions (mass, equipment, readiness, projection, industry, nuclear deterrence), aggregated through a dependency graph, never by simple addition.
Momentum 0 — Quarterly momentum: the Bureau's read on the country's trajectory over the last quarter, from −10 (deteriorating fast) to +10 (accelerating).
An uneventful quarter, recorded without embellishment: no breakthrough to celebrate, no setback to mourn.
The longer forces — demographics, trade routes, regional balances — kept doing what they do, and the country rode them steadily.
What is Guinea-Bissau's military power score?
Guinea-Bissau's military power score is 39.06/100, measuring causal military capability across 24 dimensions.
Where does Guinea-Bissau rank in military power?
Guinea-Bissau ranks #63 of 195 countries in military power in Magna Bureau military rankings.