Algeria — Military Capability Assessment

The 35.26/100 rests first on Readiness & training (85.00), Command & control (65.00), Force mass (61.06). The binding constraints: Air power (8.00), Submarine force (8.00), Nuclear survivability (6.50) — in a causal model, capability can never rise above its weakest observed link. What would move the needle: Air power (8.00) — the weak link in the spending → equipment → readiness → capability chain.

• Alliance architecture adds a +5.78 bonus.
• Nuclear deterrence contributes a capped +0.66 bonus — it cannot manufacture top-tier conventional standing on its own.
• Force mass is capped by what equipment, training and sustainment can actually support — headcount alone scores nothing.

2 of 24 dimensions could not be observed (Missile forces, Air defense); missing data caps the score — it never inflates it.

The six sub-scores

All 24 causal dimensions

Assessment coverage: 95.7% — 22 of 24 dimensions observed. Military assessment, run 2026-10-04; evidence snapshot: CIA World Factbook 2026-09-28, SIPRI arms-producer revenue, nuclear taxonomy.

Kernel assessment: Air power 8.00/100 (observed).

Recent acquisitions & orders (dated, sourced)

• Su-57E stealth fighters — ~14 contracted (reported: 6 in 2025, 6 in 2026, 2 in 2027); estimates 12-36 (rumored)
  REPORTED, NOT officially confirmed by Algeria. defencesecurityasia.com (Sept 2026) + militarywatchmagazine.com + indiandefensenews.in (2026-05): first two delivered late 2025. UAC CEO confirmed 2 Su-57E delivered to undisclosed foreign customer at Dubai Airshow Nov 2025; leaked Rostec documents + Algerian state media point to Algeria; squadron at Ain Ousselah. CONFLICT: armadainternational.com (Sept 2026) says 12 ordered in 2024 but deliveries DELAYED while Algeria acquires a small number of Su-35 instead. source
• Su-35 fighters — Small number (rumored)
  RUMOR: armadainternational.com (Sept 2026): Algeria acquiring a small number of Su-35 while Su-57 deliveries delayed. Not confirmed. source
• J-10C fighters + KJ-500 AEW&C — Undisclosed (in talks)
  armadainternational.com (Sept 2026): Algeria finalising acquisition, deliveries from 2027. Not confirmed. source
• S-400 long-range air defense (4 systems); S-300PMU-2 (8 systems, since 2008-2011) — 4 S-400 systems (delivered)
  Inventory per Wikipedia Algerian People's National Army (crawled 2026-10-02): 8× S-300, 4× S-400, Territorial Air Defence ~8,000 (2012). Live-fire exercises through 2025 (envantermedya.com 2026). source

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Kernel assessment: Land warfare 54.54/100 (observed).

Recent acquisitions & orders (dated, sourced)

• BMPT 'Terminator' tank support vehicles — 300 agreed (April 2016); 13-120 reported delivered (delivered (partial))
  CONFLICT: SIPRI via en.topwar.ru (2022): 120 BMPT-2 in Algerian service, deliveries completed 2020, contract signed 2017. Wikipedia (BMPT Spiridon, crawled 2026-10-02): 300 agreed April 2016, deliveries from 2018, only 13 delivered as of 2023. Publicly displayed in July 5, 2022 independence-day parade. source
• Kilo-class submarines (cruise-missile firings) — 6 (2× Project 877 + 4× Project 636); latest additions 2018 (delivered)
  Inventory: Wikipedia Kilo-class submarine (crawled 2026-10-02). Cruise-missile firing footage published Sept 2026 (Business Insider via imnews.imnet.online 2026-09-07). No new submarine deliveries 2024-2026 found. source
• Iskander-E ballistic missiles — Undisclosed (delivered)
  In service since 2018 (military.africa). Background acquisition pre-2023 window. source
• T-14 Armata tanks (+ S-500, Su-34M in same reported package) — Reported package values $7bn (Military Watch) / $12bn (Africa Intelligence) (rumored)
  RUMOR/FAILED: Military Watch via avia-pro.net (2019-2021) reported $7bn deal incl. T-14, S-500, Su-34M; en.topcor.ru: Africa Intelligence claimed $12bn. BUT Rosoboronexport CEO Mikheyev at IDEX 2021: T-14 export attempts to Algeria 'failed to score contracts' (globaldefensecorp.com 2023-08-24); TASS: T-14 withdrawn after underperformance. No contract — treat as failed/rumored. source

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Kernel assessment: Naval power 30.40/100 (observed).

Recent acquisitions & orders (dated, sourced)

• Kilo-class submarines (cruise-missile firings) — 6 (2× Project 877 + 4× Project 636); latest additions 2018 (delivered)
  Inventory: Wikipedia Kilo-class submarine (crawled 2026-10-02). Cruise-missile firing footage published Sept 2026 (Business Insider via imnews.imnet.online 2026-09-07). No new submarine deliveries 2024-2026 found. source

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Missile forces could not be observed in this assessment — missing data caps the score, it is never treated as zero.

Recent acquisitions & orders (dated, sourced)

• S-400 long-range air defense (4 systems); S-300PMU-2 (8 systems, since 2008-2011) — 4 S-400 systems (delivered)
  Inventory per Wikipedia Algerian People's National Army (crawled 2026-10-02): 8× S-300, 4× S-400, Territorial Air Defence ~8,000 (2012). Live-fire exercises through 2025 (envantermedya.com 2026). source
• Kilo-class submarines (cruise-missile firings) — 6 (2× Project 877 + 4× Project 636); latest additions 2018 (delivered)
  Inventory: Wikipedia Kilo-class submarine (crawled 2026-10-02). Cruise-missile firing footage published Sept 2026 (Business Insider via imnews.imnet.online 2026-09-07). No new submarine deliveries 2024-2026 found. source
• Iskander-E ballistic missiles — Undisclosed (delivered)
  In service since 2018 (military.africa). Background acquisition pre-2023 window. source
• T-14 Armata tanks (+ S-500, Su-34M in same reported package) — Reported package values $7bn (Military Watch) / $12bn (Africa Intelligence) (rumored)
  RUMOR/FAILED: Military Watch via avia-pro.net (2019-2021) reported $7bn deal incl. T-14, S-500, Su-34M; en.topcor.ru: Africa Intelligence claimed $12bn. BUT Rosoboronexport CEO Mikheyev at IDEX 2021: T-14 export attempts to Algeria 'failed to score contracts' (globaldefensecorp.com 2023-08-24); TASS: T-14 withdrawn after underperformance. No contract — treat as failed/rumored. source

Type-by-type inventory in preparation — this dossier deepens as coverage grows. Nothing here is estimated silently.

Status: non-nuclear-weapon state

Algerian People's National Army (ANP): Land Forces, Naval Forces (includes Coast Guard), Air Forces, Territorial Air Defense Forces, Republican Guard, National Gendarmerie Ministry of Interior: General Directorate of National Security (national police) (2025)

information varies; estimated 200,000 active ANP, including the National Gendarmerie (2025)

the Algerian military has traditionally been armed mostly with Russian and Soviet-era weapons systems and equipment; over the past decade, it has made investments in acquiring more modern armored vehicles, air defense systems, fighter aircraft, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and warships, largely from Russia, its traditional supplier, but also China and Western European suppliers such as Germany (2025)

18 years of age for voluntary military service for men and women; 19 years of age for mandatory national service for men (all Algerian men must register at age 17); 12 months national service obligation (2025)

the ANP is responsible for external defense but also has some internal security responsibilities; key areas of concern include border and maritime security, terrorism, regional instability, and tensions with Morocco; Algeria supports the pro-independence Polisario Front in Moroccan Sahara and accuses Morocco of supporting the Algerian separatist Movement for the Autonomy of Kabylie (MAK); border security and counterterrorism have received additional focus since the Arab Spring events of 2011 and the rise of terrorist threats emanating from Libya and the Sahel; the Army and Ministry of Defense (MND) paramilitary forces of the Gendarmerie and the border guards have beefed up their presence along the frontiers with Tunisia, Libya, Niger, and Mali to interdict and deter cross-border attacks by Islamist militant groups; the ANP and MND paramilitary forces have also increased counterterrorism cooperation with some neighboring countries, particularly Tunisia, including joint operations the ANP has also played a large role in the country’s politics since independence in 1962, including coups in 1965 and 1991; it was a key backer of BOUTEFLIKA’s election in 1999 and remained a center of power during his 20-year rule; the military was instrumental in BOUTEFLIKA’s resignation in 2019, when it withdrew support and called for him to be removed from office (2024)